The Top Digital data science agency shows some prediction models on the American elections scenarios.
Two forecasting models give the democrat Joe Biden the victory if the elections were today. On the other hand, another model points Trump as the likely winner.
A CNN traditional poll shows a balanced dispute.
By the Economist model the chance of Biden beats Trump in the electoral college is around 88% X 12% today (August 29). The electoral college is composed of 538 votes. Biden would have 343 votes and Trump 195. It is necessary to have at least 270 votes to win. (1)
The Five-Thirty-Eight model today (August 29) shows that Biden has 317 votes and Trump 221. This means Biden 69% x Trump 31%. (2)
Besides, some days ago The Economist gave 3% of chances to Trump, while the site Five-Thirty-Eight gave 28%. On August 15th the CNN showed 4 points of difference between both candidates: Biden 50% x Trump 46%. (3)
But the Rasmussen reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll keeps the Trump Approval Index History. It shows a downward tendency last week from 51% to 46% of approval, and an oscillation to 49% (approval) to 50% (disapprove) on September 2nd. In other words, it’s tied. (4)
On August 28 the polls reported by Five-Thirty-Eight show a technical tie. See the picture below: (5)
We can notice the things are tangled up at the US. The polls will be extremely important in the next days.
The bookmakers, on the other hand, register an intense convergence towards the tie in their last days predictions. (6)
According to the Helmut Norpoth model, also called the Primary Model (which it claims to have hit the vote forecast in 2016) pointed out in March 2020 that Trump will be the winner with a 91% probability.
With all this information what can be deduced is that the dispute is very fierce, and far from being defined. The polls and estimates will be essential in the coming days.
Sources:
Commentaires